UNC Recruiting, Future, and the Brandan Wright decision

As you may know, North Carolina did not recruit anybody for the Class of 2007. However, they are actively recruiting some of the best prospects in the Class of 2008. Today the North Carolina community suffered a great loss when Delvon Roe decided to stay close to home and play his college ball at Michigan State (which lost to Carolina less than a month ago, and in my opinion, is not as good a fit for his game).
A good example of how volatile and unpredictable recruiting can be, see
http://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=650696
It's obvious that recruiting is a risky proposition. After all, you are dealing with teens who have been told that they are a god for a good part of their lives, field dozens of phone calls and text messages a day from recruiters, and are being pulled in numerous different directions from friends and family, to put it simply.
The corollary is that Carolina has now offered scholarships to comparatively talented forwards Al-Farouq Aminu and Richmond's own Ed Davis. Other targets include
Tyreke Evans
Jrue Holiday
Samardo Samuels
Larry Drew

Let's look at the class lineup for Carolina for next year:

Senior: Quentin Thomas, PG

Juniors: Tyler Hansbrough, PF
Marcus Ginyard, G/F
Danny Green, SF
Bobby Frasor, G
Mike Copeland, F

Sophomores: Tywon Lawson, PG
Brandan Wright, PF (I'll get to him in a minute)
Wayne Ellington, SG
Deon Thompson, PF
Alex Stepheson, PF (Not StepheNson, just Stepheson)

Freshman: William Graves, G/F (redshirted)

As aforementioned, UNC has a large number of prospects for '08. But a college team is only allowed to have 13 scholarship players, so if there are no early entries after this year or the next(unlikely, but possible), Carolina would only be able to bring in two of those vaunted freshmen. Food for thought.

I just displayed the lineup for next year, and I'll toss out an idea for how to use all those guys this coming season. Not including Mike Copeland, who never plays, Carolina has 11 guys. The position breakdown is:

3 Point Guards
1 (pure) Shooting Guard
3 Wing players
4 Big Men

I think the best way to get all these guys on the floor is to move Bobby Frasor to Shooting Guard. He definitely deserves more playing time, and he won't get it behind Tywon Lawson. Quentin Thomas, as a senior, could be a guy that could give Lawson 8-10 minutes of rest per game. If that happens, each position would be 2 deep (depending on how much run Graves gets behind Ginyard and Green).

Obviously, this is a long ways away, but here is how I would divvy up the minutes next year:
(Out of 200 total)
Tywon Lawson, PG--30 minutes
Quentin Thomas, PG--8 minutes
Wayne Ellington, SG--24 minutes
Bobby Frasor, SG--17 minutes
Marcus Ginyard, SF--23 minutes
Danny Green, SF--18 minutes
Tyler Hansbrough, F--30 minutes
Brandan Wright, F--28 minutes
Deon Thompson, F--15 minutes
Alex Stepheson, F--7 minutes

Of course, this all changes if Brandan leaves. The minutes for the big guys should end up looking like this as a result of that move:
Tyler Hansbrough--33 minutes
Deon Thompson--25 minutes
Alex Stepheson--17 minutes
Mike Copeland--5 minutes

Here's my opinion on the Brandan Wright decision:

There are three components that (should) make up the decision for whether to stay or go:

1. How much do you like college? Do you really want to get a championship? Etc., Etc.
2. Do you have (a lot) of room for improvement? Can your game get better?
3. Is now the best time for you to go? That is, you may have room for improvement and your stock could be higher, but you are guaranteed a high spot.

Components 1 and 2 favor Wright returning to school, but Component 3 has him leaving for sure. There is a lot for Brandan to improve in his game:
1. He has the tendency to fade. See: Michigan State.
2. Very weak for a 4. Needs to add some muscle, especially in the upper body.
3. Awful free throw shooting.
4. Seems to lack a hunger for the game and the passion to win. It may just seem that way because his big man compatriot is "Psycho T", or because he has a naturally shy demeanor, but that is the perception.

However, Wright is still one of the top prospects in the draft. He has a 7'2" wingspan, is very athletic, is a good shot blocker, runs the floor well, and has virtually unstoppable little flick shot (with either hand) within about 10 feet. My sources tell me that he could go anywhere from 3 to 5, and once NBA scouts get to witness his wingspan in person, they will be won over.
We will know by April 29th.