Friday, April 27, 2007

NFL Draft Value Chart

There is something called a Value Chart for the NFL Draft. It is a grid that assigns a specific number value to a certain pick in the draft. For instance, the No. 1 overall pick is worth 3,000 points, and the No. 256 overall pick is worth .4 points. General managers live and die by this grid, determining how to trade within the draft with this as a guide. I think it's a good idea, and if I was a GM, I would employ the same method, and also assign a point value to each player in the draft.
But this chart has some interesting results. For instance, the second day of the draft (rounds 4-7) are worth less than picks No. 1 and No. 20 combined. That's insane! Pick No. 1 by itself is worth more than picks 119-256. Wow.

The upshot is that players who looked much less valuable (points-wise) than others on Draft Day look a lot better now. Let's analyze the wide receiver crop from last year, using the value chart as a guide:

Santonio Holmes, pick No. 25=720 points. First year stats: 49 receptions, 824 yards, 2 TD's.
Chad Jackson, pick No. 36=540 points. First year stats: 13 receptions, 152 yards, 3 TD's.
Sinorice Moss, pick No. 44=460 points. First year stats: 5 receptions, 25 yards, 0 TD's.
Marques Colston, pick No. 252=0.6 points. First year stats: 70 receptions, 1,038 yards, 8 TD's.

Going by the value chart, the top 3 WR's taken in last year's draft should have been 2,867 times more valuable than Marques Colston. But here are the numbers:

Top 3 receivers combined: 67 receptions, 1,001 yards, 5 TD's.
Colstons's numbers...........: 70 receptions, 1,038 yards, 8 TD's.

The value chart is better than nothing, though.

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