carolina recruiting: don't panic yet

Much has been made of the fact that Carolina got 0 guys in the class of 2007 and is losing out on big prospects left and right in the class of 2008. Samardo Samuels, Delvon Roe, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Jrue Holiday are just four of the big names the Heels were in good position with this year and lost out on. But is 2008 really the class that UNC needs? Let's check out the roster.

William Graves--rFr.
Tywon Lawson--So.
Wayne Ellington--So.
Deon Thompson--So.
Alex Stepheson--So.
Tyler Hansbrough--Jr.
Danny Green--Jr.
Marcus Ginyard--Jr.
Bobby Frasor--Jr.
Mike Copeland--Jr.
Quentin Thomas--Sr.

Let's conservatively say that their rotation is 8 deep now, which is plenty deep. It's not last year, with the 11-man rotation, but it's still fine. So, Carolina doesn't truly NEED anyone in the class of 2007 to step in and play (and that's why they were only really seriously recruiting Kevin Love).
But what about the next year? Don't the Heels need someone from the class of 2008? In a word, no. Since we conservatively kept Quentin Thomas out of the 8-man rotation in 2007-08, the Heels don't really lose anybody. And at this point, they are bringing in Larry Drew, a top-flight point guard from that class for sure. Big men Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller are both possibilities as well.
But what about early draft entries? The only guys who look as if they might do that are Lawson and Hansbrough, so even if they do go, they are replaced by Drew and Davis/Zeller, respectively. Additionally, Hansbrough is probably a four-year college player, because he doesn't have a really high ceiling. His arms are short, he is short for a four, he doesn't have a good jump shot, and his athleticism isn't that good. He is a tremendous college player for other reasons, but he isn't a prospect the NBA just falls in love with.
But, being conservative again, let's examine what their 2008-09 roster would check out as if Hansbrough and Lawson both left, AND if Carolina somehow lost out on any big man and any other recruit:
Guard:
Frasor
Drew
Ellington
Small Forward:
Green
Ginyard
Graves
Big Men:
Copeland
Thompson
Stepheson

That roster contains three McDonald's All-Americans, two very good big men (and one good senior backup), and a lot of skill at the 1-3 positions. That roster is 9 deep, which is fine. As you can see, that team isn't hurting for any big names from the class of 2007 or 2008.

But 2009, however, is another matter. That is a critical year for the Heels, as they will lose atleast five players from that graduating class, and the recruiting will really be important. For now, though, the Carolinan community can rest easy. They may have lost out on the Roes and Samuels of the world, but they'll be just fine. After all, this is UNC.

Carolina

Just watched the tape of Wright and Terry getting drafted. Still thinking about minutes next year. Here's how I'd do it:

Tywon Lawson--27 minutes
Bobby Frasor--21 minutes
Quentin Thomas--7 minutes
Wayne Ellington--22 minutes
Marcus Ginyard--21 minutes
Danny Green--22 minutes
William Graves--2 minutes
Mike Copeland--4 minutes
Alex Stepheson--19 minutes
Deon Thompson--25 minutes
Tyler Hansbrough--30 minutes

(200 total minutes)